Latest Finance-Economy News
US-Iran Conflict Enters Third Week, Strait of Hormuz Closed
The US-Iran war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing the worst oil disruption in history per the IEA, with US attacking Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Oil prices could reach $200/bbl in 2026 if prolonged, impacting commodities like fertilizers and helium.
Peak war panic expected in 1-3 weeks, potentially triggering global stock plunge.
S&P 500 Drops 1.6% Last Week, Down 5% from Highs
The S&P 500 fell to 6,632.19, down 5.0% from Jan. 27 peak of 6,978.60 and 3.1% YTD amid market concerns. Despite positive card spending up 6.0% YoY, labor market cools with near-zero job creation.
Earnings growth remains bullish long-term driver for stocks.
Global Central Banks Assess War-Driven Inflation Risks
Central banks worldwide, including Fed, BOJ, and RBA, evaluate US-Iran conflict's inflationary impact from spiking oil prices. Fed expected to hold rates steady March 17-18; BOJ to monitor oil imports; RBA may hike rates Tuesday.
G7 and major currency banks signal heightened caution.
Russian Central Bank Key Rate Meeting Looms March 20
Bank of Russia to decide on key rate, with consensus forecast cut to 15%, potentially boosting bonds and stocks. Investors watch Middle East conflict effects on ruble, oil, and Russian exporters.
Polyus gold miner reports IFRS results for 2025 today.
S&P 500 Faces Valuation Concerns at Historic Highs
Shiller P/E ratio elevated above historical average of 17.35, signaling caution despite decade-long gains. Dow hit 50,000, Nasdaq over 24,000, driven by tech and buybacks.
Market may be overvalued amid reduced rates and retail participation.
TSMC Reports Record February Sales on 3nm Chip Demand
Taiwan Semiconductor posted NT$317.66 billion in February sales, highest ever, with 30% USD revenue growth projected for 2026. Driven by strong demand for advanced 3nm processes amid supply chain tensions.
Outperforms industry amid global chip needs.
Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.11% as Home Sales Increase
US 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.11%, up from 6.00%, yet existing-home sales rose 1.7% in February. Purchase applications up as rates down over 0.5% YoY, boosting spring buying.
Buyers responding despite uptick.
Critical Minerals Boom Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Rare earth and mining stocks gain traction from US-Iran war and US-China tensions over supply chains. US announced $500M for domestic critical minerals and batteries; focus on Venezuela, Iran, Greenland resources.
Sector poised for massive growth.
Russian Firms Report Earnings: Polyus, Europlan, T-Technologies
Polyus releases 2025 IFRS results today; Europlan yearly results Tuesday; T-Technologies dividends decision March 18. VK, Rosseti Lenenergo report Thursday; X5 retailer Friday.
Key for investors tracking RAS and IFRS.
Peak War Panic to Hit Markets Soon, S&P Down Only 3% YTD
S&P 500 down 3% YTD, 5% off highs, not yet in correction despite Iran escalation and oil risks. Longer conflict could shift to hedging structural damage if over two months.
Houthi or Gulf intervention may trigger risk-off event.
RBA Eyes Rate Hike Amid Resilient Economy, Iran War
Australia's RBA to set cash rate Tuesday at 3.85%, markets price second hike on stubborn inflation and supply issues. War heightens domestic price pressures post recent increase.
Next move likely hike over cut.
Consumer Card Spending Holds Up 6% YoY Despite Market Dip
JPMorgan Chase data shows consumer spending 6.0% above last year as of March 6, estimating 0.56% February retail sales rise. Supports positive demand outlook with healthy balance sheets.
Fed shifts to labor support post-inflation.