Latest Finance-Economy News
US Q4 2025 GDP Growth Revised Down to 0.7%
Real GDP increased at just 0.7% annualized rate in Q4 2025, down 0.7 points from initial estimate, due to declines in government spending, exports, and weaker consumer spending. This slowdown occurred before the Iran war, with investment accelerating but offset by other factors.
Price index for gross domestic purchases rose 3.8%.
Iran War Drags US Economic Outlook, Pushes Oil Above $98
Escalating Middle East tensions from Iran war have spiked oil prices, with Brent at $102.70 and WTI over $98 a barrel, amid Strait of Hormuz closure threats. Stocks fell sharply: S&P 500 down 0.5% to 6636, Dow down 61, Nasdaq down 1%, VIX at 27.
Gold dropped $33 an ounce.
Fed Splinters on Rates Ahead of March 17-18 Meeting
FOMC expected to pause rate cuts amid tightening credit, Middle East war risks, and accelerating inflation, with PCE at 3.1% core. Leadership uncertainty favors Kevin Warsh; rate hikes possible if scarcities worsen.
KPMG now forecasts first cuts in September, limited to two in 2026.
February Jobs Report Shows 92,000 Payroll Losses
US nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 in February, unemployment at 4.4%, hit by healthcare strikes, weather, and losses in manufacturing, construction. Wages rose 0.4% monthly, 3.8% yearly, boosting rate cut hopes despite weakness.
Economy shows mixed signals with growth but labor softening.
CPI Rises 0.3% in February, Annual at 2.4%
Consumer prices up 0.3% in February, 2.4% yearly; core at 2.5%, above Fed's 2% target, with modest rent increases. Oil price surges risk pushing inflation higher soon.
PCE inflation hit 3.1% core, matching prior month but concerning Fed.
PCE Inflation Accelerates to 3.1% Core Amid War Risks
Core PCE rose to 3.1%, with components from hot CPI/PPI data; Fed views as poor signal. Middle East war threatens broader price rises via supply chain disruptions beyond oil.
Inflation hovered around 3% as Fed rationale for steady rates.
Wall Street Volatility as Bonds Sell Off, S&P Dips 0.3%
S&P 500 down 0.3%, Russell 2000 slightly lower; bond selloff continues with 10-year yields at 4.28%. Private markets see sudden price drops from high rates, leverage strains.
Ulta shares plunged 13%.
US Economy Enters Wartime Shock on Weak Foundation
Revised GDP, softer consumer spending, rising core inflation show momentum loss pre-Iran war. Government shutdown contributed to Q4 stumble alongside consumption decline.
Consumer sentiment dipped slightly, worse post-war onset.
Conference Board Projects 2% US Growth in 2026
US economy to expand 2% year-over-year in 2026 (1.5% Q4/Q4), 1.8% in 2027 amid challenges. Leads global productivity; watches oil shock potential to $200/barrel.
LEI indicators mixed globally: up in Germany, Spain, Japan; flat UK.
2025 Annual GDP Growth at 2.1%, Down Slightly
Full-year 2025 real GDP up 2.1%, revised down 0.1 point, driven by consumer spending and investment. Price indexes steady: gross purchases 2.6%, PCE 2.6%, core PCE 2.8%.
Sets stage for 2026 moderation under pressures.
Fed Faces Rate Hike Pressure from Inflation Surge
Some officials may push hikes next week as inflation rises pre-war, per KPMG economist. Majority favors hold, data-driven; two governors wanted cuts.
Productivity growth insufficient for cuts amid pipeline inflation.
Consumer Savings Fall, Low-Income Debt Rises
Americans saved less recently, lower-income families increasing debt amid weak hiring. Wealthier households propped spending, but Dow's three-week drop hits them.
Overall sentiment gloomier post-Iran attack.