Latest Finance-Economy News
U.S. Economy Starts 2026 on Rough Note Despite Growth Promises
The U.S. economy has begun 2026 with job losses and rising gasoline prices, contradicting President Trump's promises of strong growth. Productivity rose 2.8% in Q4 2025, but workers see little benefit as labor's income share hits record low.
Gas prices surged 19% to $3.45 amid U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran.
Gas Prices Jump 19% Due to Iran Conflict
National average gas price hit $3.45, up 19% in a month, following U.S. and Israel attacks on Iran starting Feb. 28. Goldman Sachs warns persistent high oil could push inflation from 2.4% to 3% by year-end.
Administration expects short-term disruptions from Operation Epic Fury but long-term growth.
U.S. Labor Productivity Up but Wages Lag
Business sector labor productivity increased 2.8% in Q4 2025, signaling long-term growth potential via tech sector. However, labor's share of income fell to record low, depriving workers of gains.
This highlights uneven benefits in the economy.
U.S. Bank Forecasts 2.6% GDP Growth for 2026
U.S. Bank predicts above-consensus 2.6% real GDP growth in 2026, supported by rebound from late-2025 shutdowns and consumer spending. Growth to moderate with cooling spending, aided by fiscal investment, AI capex, and productivity.
Labor market softness raises risks if persistent.
Core PCE Inflation to Rise to 3.2% Mid-2026
Core PCE inflation at 3.0% through December 2025, expected to hit 3.2% mid-2026 due to tariff-linked goods pressures. Services disinflation uneven; geopolitical energy risks could hinder progress to Fed's 2% target.
Effective tariff burden stabilizes at 9-10%.
Fed Eyes Two Rate Cuts in 2026 Amid Cross-Currents
Federal Reserve held rates steady in January, data-dependent amid labor weakness and Iran risks. February labor softness lowers easing bar, but inflation tensions may delay cuts.
Balance of risks suggests longer hold.
Goldman Sachs Sees Global GDP at 2.9% in 2026
Goldman Sachs forecasts global real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026, above consensus 2.7%. Projections cover world's biggest economies amid various headwinds.
Higher outlook reflects resilient momentum.
Trade Policy Becomes Permanent Supply Chain Cost in 2026
Tariffs now embedded as standing cost, with US escalations altering sourcing and inventory. Sections 301/232 investigations likely; USMCA review summer 2026 key for North America.
Dollar depreciation makes imports costlier despite theory.
Adam Smith's 250th Anniversary Sparks Trade Debates
Wealth of Nations turns 250 on March 9, 2026, echoing calls against tariffs and for free trade. Parallels to Trump policies and progressive wealth views; Smith favored temporary tariffs only.
Influences ongoing global economic discussions.
China Economic Data Releases on March 9
China reports key figures today: trade balance at $114.1B actual vs $182B forecast, GDP growth 6.6%, industrial production 5.7%. These indicators gauge ongoing recovery and global impact.
Times at 03:00 AM UTC.
U.S. Trade Balance Expected at -$95B
U.S. trade balance forecast at -$95B vs prior -$170B, scheduled for 06:00 PM UTC. Highlights ongoing deficit amid trade tensions.
Critical for market reactions.
Turkey Interest Rate Steady at 40%
Turkey central bank rate at 40.00% as expected, 11:00 AM UTC. Trade balance $73.43B at 11:30 AM.
Signals policy stance in volatile economy.