Latest Finance-Economy News
US Jobs Data to Drive Markets Amid Geopolitical Risks
The broader direction for USD and risk assets hinges on this week’s US jobs data, including NFP expected at 79K, amid risks of downward revision due to conflicting private payroll signals from ADP and Revelio. Operation Epic Fury, a US-Israel operation against Iran, risks disrupting 20% of global oil through Strait of Hormuz, potentially boosting USD as haven.
February ADP private employment prints Wednesday, with high volatility expected.
China to Unveil 2026 Growth Target
China will reveal its 2026 growth target this week, with February PMIs expected to indicate soggy growth outlook. This comes amid USD sideways trading last week due to thin macro catalysts.
Australia's Q4 GDP also due Tuesday, seen at 0.7% q/q.
Eurozone CPI Data Critical for ECB Expectations
Eurozone CPI y/y forecast at 1.8% and Core CPI at 2.3% on Tuesday could influence ECB rate cut speculation. Hotter prints may strengthen Euro, while misses weigh on EUR/USD.
CPI watch also for Sweden and Switzerland.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI Kicks Off Week
Monday's USD ISM Manufacturing PMI forecast at 53.0, with focus on Prices Paid and Employment for inflation and labor clues. Deviation from expectations could move USD, S&P 500, and yields sharply.
Services PMI Wednesday forecast at 52.3.
Strait of Hormuz Oil Disruption Risks Spike
Iranian media reports Strait of Hormuz 'practically closed' due to US-Israel Operation Epic Fury, pausing oil shipping for 20% of global flows. Risks to refineries and pipelines heighten crude oil volatility.
This overshadows limited oil price moves last week.
NFP Report Headlines Week with Wage Growth Focus
US Nonfarm Payrolls forecast at 79K (prev 130K), unemployment at 4.2%, Avg Hourly Earnings 0.2% m/m. Strong beat boosts USD and yields; miss triggers risk-off.
Private sector adds +172k in Jan per BLS, but ADP/Revelio much lower.
Central Banks in Focus: Poland, Malaysia, Australia
Poland's NBP expected to cut rates 25bps to 3.75% Wednesday; Malaysia's BNM holds at 2.75% Thursday. Australia's Q4 real GDP at 0.7% q/q Tuesday, near RBA forecast.
Eurozone Retail Sales MoM at -0.5% forecast.
Crypto Markets Eye Fed Data, Token Unlocks, Trump China Trip
US CPI March 11, unemployment March 6 shape Fed rate decision; NY Fed liquidity injections ~$13.4B. Token unlocks like ENA $18M March 5, ZRO $43M March 20 add pressure; Trump China trip March 30.
Delistings for FLOW, NEIRO from Korean exchanges.
Canada's Economy Shrank End of 2025
Canada's Q4 2025 GDP shrank due to business inventory withdrawals after Q3 accumulations, despite higher exports. This impacts G10 central bank outlooks for March.
Ivey PMI s.a at 50.9 Friday.
Eurozone Retail Sales and ECB Accounts Due
EA Retail Sales MoM forecast -0.5%, YoY 1.3% Monday. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and Lagarde speech also key.
US Challenger Job Cuts at 108K announced.