Latest Finance-Economy News
US Avoids Government Shutdown with Temporary Budget Resolution
Congress passed a temporary budget resolution on January 31, 2026, averting an immediate US government shutdown and reducing short-term political risk. Markets reacted positively as this minimized potential GDP reduction and equity volatility.
Prediction markets had priced a 68% shutdown probability just prior.
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Unchanged at 3.75%
The Fed concluded its January FOMC meeting by keeping the benchmark rate steady after three prior cuts, citing labor market stabilization and solid economic activity. Markets now price two additional 25 bps cuts by end-2026; two governors dissented for an immediate cut.
Trump criticized the decision, demanding the world's lowest rates.
Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh as Next Fed Chair
President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman, whose term ends in May 2026. Warsh supports lower rates, aligning with Trump's views; markets rebounded on the news despite early drops.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.25% post-announcement.
China's January PMI Data Release Draws Global Focus
China's Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI indexes for January are scheduled for release at 04:30 MSK on January 31, 2026. Stronger-than-expected figures could boost commodity markets and raw material stocks, while weak data may raise Asia demand concerns.
Investors are closely monitoring for early 2026 economic signals.
Prediction Markets Emerge as Wall Street's Key Asset Class
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have matured into efficient 'truth machines' with $23.8B volume in 2025, up 1,100% YoY; Kalshi hit $465.9M single-day record on Jan 14. Markets now price hawkish Fed hold for March 18 and launched climate contracts in May.
Institutional hedging drives rapid probability shifts, like Fed cut odds dropping to 12%.
US Stock Markets End January Higher Amid Volatility
Dow Jones closed at 48,892 (+1.7% MoM), S&P 500 at 6,939 (+1.4%), Nasdaq at 23,462 (+0.9%) for January 2026. Gains followed shutdown avoidance hopes and strong earnings from IBM, AT&T, Caterpillar; travel stocks surged on Southwest, Royal Caribbean results.
Nasdaq dipped 0.72% recently on Microsoft weakness.
December CPI Shows US Inflation at 2.7% YoY
US Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% YoY in December 2026, slightly above 2.6% expectations; core CPI at 2.6% below forecasts. Fed attributes elevated inflation to tariffs, not demand, amid stabilizing labor market.
Producer Price Index exceeded expectations, keeping inflation in focus.
Oil Prices Rise on Iran Tensions and Trump Rhetoric
Brent crude broke into $70s/bbl and WTI mid-$60s amid US naval moves to Middle East and Trump's Iran comments; Iran warns of response. OPEC+ meets soon to review production; prices up on geopolitical risks.
Heightened tensions boosted oil patch momentum in stocks.
GIFT City Rises in Global Financial Centres Index
India's GIFT City ranked 43rd among 120 centres in Global Financial Centres Index, up 10 spots in fintech via sandboxes. It facilitates global capital flows, hosts first foreign bond listing, and leads with 1,700+ GCCs employing 1.9M.
Economic Survey eyes it as hub for finance and services.
Consumer Confidence Plunges to Multi-Month Low
Conference Board Consumer Confidence hit lowest since April 2026, showing broad deterioration. Jobless claims steady at ~200k; labor market stabilizing per Fed.
Sahm Rule creator voices long-term US economy health concerns.
Treasury Yields Climb; 10-Year at 4.26%
10-year US Treasury yield ended January at 4.26%, up from 4.18%; 30-year at 4.87%. Rose post-Warsh nomination; dollar index up 0.38% to 96.64 near 4-year lows.
Gold dropped 4% to above $5,100/oz, silver below $100.
India States Secure Massive Investment MoUs
Uttar Pradesh signed ₹9,750 crore MoUs in clean energy, AI, digital infra, defence. Assam got ₹1 lakh crore commitments in green energy, semiconductors, electronics.
Ties to India's push for global financial hub status via GIFT City.