Latest Finance-Economy News
Global Energy Transition Investment Reaches Record $2.3 Trillion in 2025
BloombergNEF reports global investment in energy transition hit a record $2.3 trillion in 2025, up 8% from 2024. Asia Pacific led with 47%, China at $800B despite renewables decline, EU grew 18% to $455B, and US up 3.5% to $378B.
Data centers drove ~$500B, M&A rose 37% to $99.1B, and debt issuance up 17% to $1.2T.
IMF Projects Resilient Global Growth at 3.3% for 2026
IMF's January 2026 World Economic Outlook forecasts global growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, matching 2025's 3.3%. US growth accelerates to 4.3% in 2025, projected 2.4% in 2026; China revised to 5.0% in 2025.
Inflation to decline to 3.8% in 2026, driven by AI investments and accommodative policies.
China's Economy Meets 5% Growth Target in 2025 Amid Challenges
China's GDP expanded 5% in 2025 per official data, but fixed asset investment fell to -3.8% in December and home prices dropped 2.7% YoY. Markets watch stimulus effectiveness like adjusted relending rates.
Upcoming PMI data key ahead of Lunar New Year.
Fed Meeting Highlights Concerns Over Central Bank Independence
FOMC meets Jan 28-29, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient US labor and spending. Tensions rise with Trump admin probes into Powell and Cook, Powell's term ends May.
Markets question pre-departure rate cuts under political pressure.
Euro Area Q4 GDP and ECB Projections in Focus
Euro area Q4 GDP flash tests ECB's 1.4% 2025 growth forecast, up from 0.9% in 2024. BNP Paribas sees eurozone growth at 1.1% in 2026 after 1.4% in 2025, with ECB rate to 2.5% by H2 2027.
Inflation below 2% in 2026, accelerating in 2027.
BNP Paribas Forecasts US Growth Strengthening to 1.6% in 2026
US growth to rise to 1.6% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025, with inflation at 2.7% due to tariffs. Labor market slows from immigration policies; supportive fiscal/monetary policies prioritized.
EU trade tensions and China risks noted.
Bank of Japan Outlook: Moderate Growth with Trade Policy Risks
BOJ forecasts Japanese growth at +0.8-1.0% in fiscal 2026, inflation +1.9-2.0%. Exports recover post-tariffs; fixed investment rises on profits and measures.
Uncertainties from US/Europe fiscal expansion and China growth pace.
Emerging Economies to Outpace Advanced at 4.2% Growth in 2026
IMF projects advanced economies at 1.8% vs. 4.2% for emerging/developing in 2026. Resource-rich nations gain from energy transition minerals demand.
Growth concentrated in Asia/Africa; debt/climate risks in Latin America.
German ifo Business Climate Steady at 87.6 in January 2026
ifo Index unchanged at 87.6; manufacturing improves but capacity utilization at 77.5%. Services deteriorate, trade rises sharply, construction improves slightly.
Order backlog weak in logistics/tourism.
IMF Ups Global GDP Growth Estimate to 3.3% for 2026
IMF raises 2026 worldwide GDP forecast to 3.3%, up 0.2pp from prior estimate. Reflects resilient outlooks amid AI, fiscal support.
Divergences persist, US stronger than others.
UK Growth to Slow to 1.1% in 2026 with Restrictive Policy
BNP Paribas sees UK GDP at 1.1% in 2026 after 1.4% in 2025, quarterly +0.3%. BoE cuts rate to 3.5% Q1 2026, two more in H1 2027 as inflation nears 2%.
Defence spending supports amid trade risks.
Australia Inflation Data Critical Ahead of Potential Rate Hike
Australia's Dec inflation key post-strong jobs; 60% chance Feb RBA hike priced in. First monthly data comparable to quarterly history.
RBA needs sustained pressure evidence.